European businesses are increasingly factoring geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe into their technology purchasing decisions, according to new research from Proton.
The study suggests concerns about access to critical digital services are becoming a growing priority for organizations across the region. Many businesses now view the possibility of losing access to key technology platforms as a significant operational risk, placing it alongside more traditional threats such as cyberattacks and ransomware.
As businesses become increasingly reliant on cloud-based communication, collaboration, and productivity tools, and long-stable relationships begin to fray, questions around resilience, continuity, and digital sovereignty are moving higher up the corporate agenda.
The Growing Concern Around Technology Access
The research found that nearly three-quarters of European businesses are at least somewhat concerned about the possibility of a government-imposed restriction affecting access to US technology providers. Concern levels were almost identical to those reported for ransomware and cyberattacks, highlighting how geopolitical developments are increasingly being viewed through the lens of operational risk.
Organizations are also prepared to take action if access to critical platforms is disrupted. More than two-thirds of respondents said they would switch to an alternative provider if a government-imposed restriction prevented them from accessing a technology service on which they depend.
The study found particularly strong sentiment in the UK, where businesses were most willing to consider changing providers in response to access restrictions. Similar attitudes were also reported among organizations in Germany and France, indicating the issue is being felt across multiple European markets.
Despite these concerns, the research revealed a significant preparedness gap. While many organizations acknowledge the risks associated with technology dependence, less than half have a documented and regularly tested business continuity plan in place. This suggests that many businesses would be forced to react to a disruption in real time rather than rely on a rehearsed contingency strategy.
The potential consequences of such a disruption are considerable. More than half of respondents said they would be unable to continue operating beyond a single business day if they lost access to cloud and digital services. For many organizations, even a short interruption could have an immediate impact on business operations.
The findings also highlighted the operational challenges businesses expect to face during a disruption. Reduced employee productivity and an inability to support customers emerged as the most commonly cited consequences across every market surveyed.
Why Digital Sovereignty Is Becoming a Business Issue
The research arrives amid growing debate around Europe’s reliance on US technology providers and the potential risks associated with concentrating critical business functions on a small number of platforms.
Those concerns have been building since relations between the US and Europe became increasingly strained following President Trump’s second term, with the administration imposing tariffs on goods from both the EU and the UK.
Technology-specific concerns came to a head in June when the US government issued an export control directive suspending foreign access to Anthropic’s advanced AI models, Claude Mythos 5 and the more restricted Claude Fable 5. The restrictions applied to foreign nationals regardless of whether they were operating inside or outside the US.
The move highlighted a challenge that many organizations had previously viewed as theoretical. Businesses that had integrated access to advanced AI models into security operations, automation workflows, or decision-making processes suddenly faced the prospect of losing access to capabilities they had begun to rely on.
For organizations building processes around emerging AI technologies, the incident demonstrated how access to critical services can be influenced by factors beyond their control. Even where alternative solutions exist, replacing a technology that has already been embedded into operational workflows can require significant time, resources, and planning.
The issue is becoming increasingly relevant as AI adoption accelerates. Many of the world’s leading AI developers remain US-based, meaning European organizations often depend on American companies for access to advanced models and services. While concerns around data sovereignty and regulatory oversight have grown, practical alternatives capable of matching the scale and capabilities of leading US providers remain limited.
At the same time, several European governments and policymakers have pushed for greater technological independence. Some public sector organizations have begun reassessing their reliance on major US software vendors, while some politicians have called for more AI development and infrastructure to be established within Europe.
Although the US export ban has now been lifted, the continent remains heavily dependent on American technology providers across cloud, productivity, and AI markets.
Businesses Recognize the Risk but Remain Unprepared
The findings suggest European organizations are becoming increasingly aware of the operational risks associated with technology dependence, even as many remain underprepared to manage a major disruption.
Many organizations have taken steps to improve resilience. The research found that 44% have a business continuity plan that is both documented and regularly tested, while 36% have a plan that exists but is not regularly tested. A further 13% rely on an informal, undocumented plan.
Businesses have focused much of their resilience planning on email and cloud storage services, which were identified as the areas most commonly affected by disruption. The emphasis reflects the central role these platforms now play in day-to-day business operations.
Looking ahead, however, the findings suggest technology procurement decisions may increasingly be influenced by resilience considerations alongside cost, functionality, and security. As geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape the technology landscape, organizations are likely to place greater emphasis on contingency planning, diversification, and reducing dependence on any single provider.
For European businesses, the challenge is no longer simply adopting the latest technology. It is ensuring critical systems remain available when access to those technologies cannot be guaranteed.
